Nuclear Test & CTBT Monitoring Assurance

Seismic size alone can't tell you whether it was an explosion or an earthquake — the ratio can

An event's body-wave-to-surface-wave ratio, not just its magnitude, is what actually separates an explosion signature from an earthquake of equivalent size — and that discriminant is computed and reported explicitly rather than left for someone to infer.

A yield estimate ships with its own uncertainty factor, not a false sense of precision

Any yield estimate carries an explicit uncertainty factor built into the output, and the classification only reaches high confidence when independent signals — seismic and gravity onset pattern — agree; conflicting signals are reported as ambiguous, not averaged into a false consensus.

This runs on measurement logs, not classified source locations

Never requested, and structurally rejected if submitted: classified monitoring-network locations or raw sensor control access.

Scenario: A seismic event registers magnitude consistent with either interpretation.

A seismic event's magnitude alone is consistent with either a small explosion or a shallow natural earthquake.

WITHOUT this check: Magnitude alone triggers an alert: "possible nuclear test detected."

WITH this check: The body-wave-to-surface-wave discriminant is computed explicitly. The ratio here is consistent with EARTHQUAKE_CANDIDATE, not explosion — the alert is downgraded, and no yield-proxy is populated for what's classified as a natural event.

Scenario: A seismic event registers in a region with active mining operations.

Its magnitude and initial discriminant reading fall in a range consistent with either a small underground nuclear test or a large mining blast — the two can produce very similar seismic signatures.

WITHOUT this check: The fusion score alone crosses the high-confidence threshold, and the event is flagged as a high-confidence nuclear-test candidate — mining blasts routinely produce signatures that would otherwise clear that bar.

WITH this check: A location prior recognizes the event falls within an active mining region and requires a higher fusion score before nuclear-test classification is allowed there. The same signal that would trigger high confidence elsewhere stays at ambiguous confidence here, reflecting how common mining blasts actually are in that specific area.

A deep event is ruled out before anything else is even scored

Nuclear tests are physically shallow. A depth-constraint gate checks this first — an event too deep is classified as a deep earthquake and excluded from nuclear-test scoring entirely, regardless of how its other signals might otherwise look.

Do not buy the claim. Test the gate.

Feed a synthetic seismic event with magnitude consistent with either interpretation but a discriminant clearly favoring one. It succeeds only if it classifies correctly using the discriminant, not magnitude alone.